UFC ON FOX 2 – Predictions part 2 / Prelims

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Published on: January 26, 2012

Evan Dunham vs. Nik Lentz


This is another one that I will keep short. Let me first say that I was very impressed with Nik Lentz vs. Mark Bocek. I bet heavy on Bocek, but Lentz was making me a bit nervous with how well he was attacking the neck as well as maintaining guard. Due to this, I have a hard time justifying a play on Dunham at current odds. I expect Dunham to have a significant advantage standing, but Lentz does have a good chance at getting Dunham down and Lentz always has surprises up his sleeve. If anything, I would advise waiting for the line to further inflate for Dunham and try to pick up a very small play on Lentz. I also think it’s very possible that this fight goes to decision, so entertaining a rounds prop is also a good idea.

 

Mike Russow vs. Jon Olav Einemo

 

It’s been incredibly interesting watching the line move on this one. Einemo has been as high as +210 and is now down to +120. The movements have been up and down. Honestly, I am not surprised by the movement. I am having a hard time analyzing this fight myself.

I am slightly favoring Russow here because of his toughness and the ability to keep this fight standing. He also has the experience on his side. It’s really hard to gauge where Einemo is at in terms of his MMA game. We know his ground game is solid, but how will he react if he can’t take it there?

I would advise staying away from any large plays on this fight. If Russow’s line goes under -150, I’ll probably play it small, but there is just too much unpredictability in this fight.

Final decision by MMAVardesh: $15 bet on Jon Olav Einemo @ 2.59 / +159

Shane Roller vs. Michael Johnson

Out of all of the fights Saturday night, this is the fight that I feel most comfortable about betting on the favorite. Out of the three ways to win the fight, I see Shane Roller having a better chance at all 3 than Johnson.

Roller’s submission game is a bit overlooked. When it comes to scrambles, he is great at getting the back. He also has a solid guillotine. I believe there will be a lot of scrambles in this fight, so look for a good opportunity of Roller by sub. I also believe Roller can use his grappling to earn a decision if necessary. Sure, Johnson is a solid wrestler, but Roller is the better wrestler along with being the better grappler. Once Johnson is down, he can likely hold him there unlike Johnson holding down Roller. Lastly, Roller definitely has power in his hands. While I think Johnson’s best route to victory would be a (T)Ko standing, I feel Roller can negate that with his wrestling. Roller also has heavy hands that are more of a threat to Johnson, especially if he follows with ground and pound.

This is the line that I like most out of the event. I would likely play Roller up to the -275 range. As you’ve seen, I have quite a few underdog recommendations, so use this favorite to offset potential losses on value bets.

Eric Wisely vs. Charles Oliveira

Wow – Oliveira is definitely bringing a lot of hype into the cage. I’m going to make this short and say that Oliveira has no business being in the -500 range at this point in his career. Wisely impressed me in his fight with Healy. Wisely was very undersized for Healy, and that probably played a large part in the fight. Otherwise, he was very active and seemed very fluid on the ground. Wisely has bested fighters like Matt Veach and Hermes Franca twice. He’s also never lost by a method over than decision – and he’s had 25 fights.

I would highly advise a small play on Wisely for the upset. The odds are definitely off here. Wisely has a great chance to end up on top in scrambles. He’s going to be very tough to submit, and he’s going to be very aware of what Oliveira is looking to do. I can also see him really tiring out Oliveira with his pace.

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UFC ON FOX 2 – Predictions part 1 / Main card

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Published on: January 24, 2012
Rashad Evans vs. Phil Davis

The main event of UFC on Fox 2 prevents an interesting matchup of Rashad Evans vs. Phil Davis. Both are wrestlers, but Davis has a much more decorated wrestling background. Where Davis may have the advantage in wrestling credentials, Rashad enjoys an advantage in MMA experience.When analyzing this fight, I tried to look to separate wrestling into two aspects – offensive wrestling and takedown defense. After watching Rashad’s fights again, I feel he doesn’t have the best takedown defense. Tito Ortiz had him down in under 9 seconds in their first fight. In the second fight, he had him down in under two minutes. Both times it was Tito’s first shot of the fight. I feel Davis has a pretty good chance to put Rashad down, but I think a lot of it depends on setting up the takedown with strikes.Now lets look at Rashad’s offensive wrestling. In my opinion, this has been his greatest asset. He uses his speed and wrestling to put fighters down if he’s ever in trouble standing. He’s great at keeping fighters guessing and switching it up.My feeling is that Rashad comes in looking to keep this standing. Due to that, he won’t be using his greatest asset of speed + offensive wrestling. This actually makes his standup less dangerous as well. I see Davis as looking to close the distance and being able to grab ahold of Rashad. I think this will be a razor close fight, so Davis at +150 is definitely worth a play. I’d also strongly entertain props with this fight going into late rounds as well as Davis by decision.
Chael Sonnen vs. Michael Bisping

I am going to keep this one very short. I feel Sonnen should win this fight, but the odds are getting a little bit outrageous. Sonnen most likely will be able to get ahold of Bisping and put him down, but Bisping has been great at standing back up. I do not think a bet on Sonnen would be wise at the inflated odds, but a tiny flyer on Bisping may be worth it. In a 5 round fight, I wouldn’t even play the flyer, but stealing two rounds may not be that difficult for Bisping if he can remain active and frustrate Sonnen. If you think I’m crazy, just stay away from the fight altogether. It’s not as crazy as putting substantial money on Sonnen at those pricey odds.
One appealing bet would be “fight goes the distance”. I have not seen the line for this, but I imagine it will be a bit pricey. I think it is an extremely high likelihood that this fight goes to decision though.

Final decision by MMAVardesh: $10 bet on 4.86 / +386

Chris Weidman vs. Demien Maia

In my opinion, this is one of the most intriguing fights on the card. Weidman is coming in this fight with a lot of hype behind him, but Maia is his first true test. The odds for this fight have shifted greatly since the opening lines were released. Although bestfightodds.com does not reflect this, Maia actually opened at +255 on Bodog/Bovada. Since then, the line has stayed fairly steady downward towards the +125 range on most books. This line may be an interesting one to keep an eye on as more casual fans tend to bet late. My guess is that more money will come in on Maia as the general public sees this as Maia vs “a wrestler”. Maia has had a great track record with wrestlers, but Weidman is beyond that.If you aren’t familiar with Weidman’s accomplishments outside of the UFC, go ahead and check his wrestling credentials. After that, watch his ADCC match with Andre Galvao from a couple years ago. If Weidman can hold his own with Galvao years ago, it stands to reason that his BJJ today is very competent. He has passed far beyond the average wrestler. With that said, Maia is very tricky in MMA and still poses a big threat.This means the fight may come down to striking. I’ve been very impressed with Maia’s improvements in striking, but I was also impressed with Weidman against Sakara. He did a lot of things right, especially defensively. I see this fight having a lot of action standing, so it may come down to who has improved their standup the most.In the end, I have to give a slight edge to Weidman. I feel striking is too tough to call at this point, but Weidman has the luxury to take the fight down if necessary. His submission defense is solid. I see Maia having a very tough time taking a decision, but a solid chance at a submission due to his crafty game. With Weidman, I’d say his best chance is decision.With all of that said, I would keep an eye on the line. If Weidman’s line improves, I’d strongly recommend a play on him by decision. I was lucky enough to get Maia at +255 which has a lot of value, but I will be looking for fight completes 2 to cover that bet. I think the most likely outcome is Weidman by decision, and if Maia pulls off the sub, it’s likely to be late.

Final decision by MMAVardesh: $10 bet on 2.40 / +140

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UFC 141: LESNAR VS. OVEREEM – Predictions part 2 / Prelims

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Published on: December 29, 2011

Nam Phan vs. Jim Hettes


This is the fight that I am most confident on. Jim Hettes is taking a big step up in competition facing Nam Phan – a BJJ black belt who has never been submitted. Jim Hettes’s strategy for victory is no secret – he likes judo throws and submissions. He had a tough test in his first fight vs. Alex Cacares who eventually succumbed to a rear naked choke, but Phan is a much larger step up. Phan just came off a victory over Leonard Garcia and had a very close loss to Mike Brown prior to that. Phan’s had an up and down career, but most of his losses come by heavy strikes.

I see this as a horrible stylistic matchup for Hettes. He looked very uncomfortable standing, and he also had issues pacing himself. Phan is very competent on the ground as well as being tough to drag to the mat. Phan also punishes the body, which will wear on Hettes. I see Hettes looking very uncomfortable in this fight and Phan cruising to a dominant decision or a (T)Ko. I think a large play on Phan is warranted.

Final decision by MMAVardesh: $50 bet on Nam Phan @ 1.50 / -200.

Ross Pearson vs. Junior Assuncao

Junior Assuncao moves up to the top of the undercard after his successful return to the Octagon. He has a very tough test ahead of him in Ross Pearson. Pearson will be making his first drop down to Featherweight. Pearson has had a fairly successful UFC career winning the Ultimate Fighter as well as getting solid wins over fighters such as Denis Siver and Spencer Fisher.

I see this as a tough matchup for Assuncao. I was very underwhelmed with his return to the UFC. I was very unimpressed with his standup and noticed his chin way up in the air. I also think he’ll have a tough time getting Pearson to the ground. I look for Pearson to completely control this fight while landing big shots throughout.

Behind Phan, Pearson is the next in line to recommend a larger play on. If you are the type that worries about weight cuts, you may want to size appropriately. I do not think this will be a very taxing fight with a lot of clinching, so it does not concern me too much.

Final decision by MMAVardesh: $30 bet on Ross Pearson @ 1.34 / -290.

Anthony Njokuani vs. Danny Castillo


I will keep this short because I believe it’s a hard fight to handicap. I can see arguments for both sides, but I am on the Castillo side. Njokuani has not done well at all against grapplers. Castillo’s downfalls have been to grapplers as well. Njokuani is not a grappler. I just can’t fathom Castillo trying to mix it up standing with Njokuani. With Pettis, Castillo was threatened when taking him down. He will not have any threats with Njokuani’s ground game, so I see Castillo being relentless on the takedown. If he doesn’t get that, it will likely be a clinch.Again, this is a tough one to call and I’m going out on a limb here. It’s tough to handicap, but I see nothing wrong with a small play on Castillo. Otherwise, I’d just stay away from it.

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UFC 141: LESNAR VS. OVEREEM – Predictions part 1 / Main card

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Published on: December 25, 2011

Brock Lesnar vs. Alistair Overeem


Two giants will be colliding at UFC 141 in the highly anticipated main event between Brock Lesnar and Alistair Overeem. The winner of this fight will likely be facing Junior Dos Santos for the Heavyweight Championship. There seems to be a pretty large split among fans on who will win this fight. Many think Lesnar should be able to put Overeem on his back and pound him out. Others feel Lesnar will not be able to handle being hit by Overeem. How do I feel? I feel both are very possible, but the key is to examine which is more likely.

First off, I want to say that this is a fight that is very hard to accurately predict. Lesnar has never fought a striker like Overeem. Overeem has never fought a wrestler as decorated as Lesnar. So what happens here? Let’s assume Lesnar gets Overeem down. I think Overeem can probably survive there. Rather than looking for some sort of sub such as Mir, he will be working to get back up. Can he get back up? It’s hard to say, but I think he can definitely threaten to stand up enough to reduce Lesnar’s offensive attack. Each round starts standing, so Lesnar can be in trouble there. What about the standup fight? Can Overeem pull the trigger since he’ll be so worried about the takedown? He had trouble with Werdum there.

Are you sick of me riding the fence yet? Let me talk about other factors that I think will favor Overeem. In the Cain fight, Lesnar showed me that he can get overexcited. I’ll never forget him just charging straight out like a bull towards Cain. He also seemed to have an issue with pacing himself if he’s not in total control. Many say Overeem has the possibility of gassing, but I think this is only if Lesnar has him down most of the fight and Overeem is forced to struggle to getting back up. I feel Lesnar will not be able to get Overeem down at will, and I question how Lesnar will react. Will he engage in a firefight? Will he keep shooting?

In the end, I think the experience of Overeem will be a bit too much for Lesnar. I look for a strong (T)Ko from Overeem, but I will not be shocked if Lesnar does pull this off. I think there are a lot better fights to put a large play on, but I do not see anything wrong with a small play on Overeem inside the distance. If you are leaning towards Lesnar, I would keep in mind the possibility of a decision. There may be a lot of value there, and I don’t think it’s out of the realm of possibility.

 

Nate Diaz vs. Donald Cerrone

Although the main event of UFC 141 is getting the most attention, I feel this will be the fight of the night to look forward to. Nate Diaz vs. Donald Cerrone has the potential to be fireworks both standing and on the ground. Both fighters bring a straightforward style and both are not afraid to engage standing and on the ground.Let me first say that I am very hesitant to bet against a Diaz unless it’s against a strong wrestler. Time and time again, the Diaz’s show that they are very competent standing and that their style puts tremendous demands on the cardio of their opponent. Cerrone is a very solid striker, but he has shown that he can get hit before. Paul Kelly was teeing off on him in their fight. Kelly just came straight forward to do this, which I think Nate will do. Cerrone is very competent standing and on the ground, but his biggest advantage here is that he has the wrestling to dictate where he’d prefer to be.

So what do I see happening? I see Cerrone possibly landing a lot of leg kicks and getting the better of Diaz in Round 1. Eventually, this fight will turn high pace. When the scrambles start to arrive, I favor Diaz’s chance at snagging a submission. Furthermore, I think Diaz has a chance to overwhelm late.

The smart play here is Diaz at the current odds. I can’t imagine betting on Cerrone with confidence here. Diaz has the ability to make fighters get emotional, and I see Cerrone as a major candidate for this. If Cerrone gets wild on a takedown, I would not rule out a strong guillotine from Nate similar to the way Henderson finished Cerrone.

 

Jon Fitch vs. Johny Hendricks

I’m going to keep this one short because I don’t feel it’s a good fight to bet on. I do think Hendricks has shown pretty poor takedown defense for his wrestling background, but Fitch’s new diet and new walk around weight makes me a bit nervous. If Fitch gets Hendricks down, I don’t think Hendricks is getting back up. My worry is that Fitch’s takedowns often come from the clinch. If Hendricks has really been drilling his takedown defense and Fitch is weaker than before, it could spell trouble. I look for Fitch to win this fight, but I would steer clear of it.

 

Vladimir Matyushenko vs. Alexander Gustafsson

This is another one that I’m going to keep fairly short. I’d advise one of two things – staying away from the fight altogether or a small play on Matyushenko. At this point, I don’t see any justification for Gustafsson to be such a large favorite against a veteran like Matyushenko. Only two guys have put Matyushenko away in the last 5 years – Bones Jones and Little Nog. Gustafsson definitely has the ability to put Matyushenko away, but not enough to justify his line. So why am I not betting a bit heavier on Matyushenko? He’s almost 41 and coming off an injury. It’s hard to gauge where he’ll be at. Play this fight with safety in mind.

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STRIKEFORCE: MELENDEZ VS. MASVIDAL – Predictions part 1 / Main card

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Published on: December 14, 2011
Gilbert Melendez vs. Jorge Masvidal

Gilbert Melendez will be making his third title defense this Saturday vs. Jorge Masvidal. Melendez has looked very impressive in his recent outings by mauling Kawijiri and completely nullifying Shinya Aoki. Jorge Masvidal presents a completely different style, but I don’t think Melendez will have too much of a problem.Masvidal has shown that he’s a very sharp striker. He has a solid jab, good head movement, and he can mix in kicks and knees. I view Masvidal’s pace as very relaxed. He looks for openings and takes advantage. He rarely goes into full attack mode and Daley showed that he can be swarmed. The previous assessment is a key aspect to analyze in the fight with Melendez. Melendez has shown an ability to maul and bully. I think this is going to be an issue for Masvidal. With that said, Melendez getting a bit careless could present troubles.I think the current lines are fairly accurate. Melendez will most likely bully his way to a (T)Ko, and he’s definitely got a better shot at a decision in my eyes. I still think Masvidal has a decent chance at a KO, so I’m not surprised to see Melendez below -400. If I were to entertain any play on this, it would likely be fight ends inside the distance as this covers Melendez’s most likely route to victory as well as Masvidal’s most likely route.
Cristiane Santos vs. Hiroko Yamanaka

I really don’t have much that I can write about this besides the fact that I see odds coming in extremely high for Santos. I thoroughly expect her to maul Yamanaka and win inside the distance, but I can’t imagine the odds being worthwhile.
Gegard Mousasi vs. Ovince St. Preux

This has fight of the night written all over it! I keep going back and forth in my mind about who to go with in this fight. First, let me say that this is a big step up for OSP. It is really tough to gauge how he will do against elite competition, but there is no denying his skill. OSP has shown devastating power, great athleticism, and strong positional grappling. Mousasi is the entire package minus the wrestling.Now how do these two matchup? As said earlier, Mousasi does not really have a weakness besides in his wrestling. I definitely feel OSP has the ability to put him on the ground, but Mousasi is dangerous there. How about on the feet? Well I give the technical edge to Mousasi, but I give the power to OSP. The two X factors in this fight are athleticism and conditioning. I definitely give the athleticism to OSP and conditioning to Mousasi. OSP has looked to fade. Another tiny aspect is that OSP has looked to be in scary situations in the past. Mousasi will be able to capitalize on those much better than his past opponents.In the end, I have to give an overall edge to Mousasi. I will definitely look to play the odds here. If odds are around even, I’m on Mousasi. If OSP comes out as an attractive dog, I will look to play him. I would hesitate playing a prop on this one as it could steer in multiple directions. For all of OSP’s power, he has gone to decision in three of his last four.Final decision by MMAVardesh: $20 bet on Ovince St. Preux @ 4.25 / +325.

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UFC 140: JONES VS. MACHIDA – Predictions part 4 / Prelims

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Published on: December 9, 2011

Krzysztof Soszynski vs. Igor Pokrajac

The word gatekeeper gets thrown around a bit, but it means something different to everyone. In my mind, Soszysnki is a gatekeeper to the cream of the crop of LHW. He will probably not make it there, but he is a step above the prelim LHW fighter. I think he is going to keep the gate closed for Pokrajac.

To explain further, Soszynski has had two losses in his UFC career. He was simply outclassed by Vera. He couldn’t get Vera down, and Soszynski couldn’t strike on the outside with Vera. He also lost a brawl to Bonnar. Since then, much like Bonnar recently, Soszynski has shown intelligence. In his last two fights, he has shown a lot of patience and a solid gameplan. I look him to do the same against Pokrajac. Pokrajac will be looking for a brawl, but I think he’ll end up in a fight very similar to his fight with Bonnar. I look for Soszynski to stay on the outside until Pokrajac rushes in only to get put on his back. I look for Soszynski to control and possibly secure his ripping kimura.

I would advise a play on Soszynski up to around -300. I see the most likely outcomes being Soszynski by clear cut decision and then a possible finish by (T)Ko or kimura. I see Soszynski having just as likely of a chance to land a big shot standing, so obviously the percentage chance for Soszynski is high in my eyes.

 

Yves Jabouin vs. Walel Watson


The last prelim that I will be talking about is Jabouin vs. Watson. This is going to be short writeup because I see it as pretty simple. I give Jabouin a good advantage on the feet. Watson will likely have the advantage on the ground with his tricky submission game, but I don’t think he’ll be able to get it there. I see Jabouin damaging in the standup and Watson’s takedown attempts looking weak. I think Jabouin is a solid play, but only up to about -200 to -215 range. There is a bit of an unknown factor with Watson, so I would avoid a heavy play.

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UFC 140: JONES VS. MACHIDA – Predictions part 3 / Prelims

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Published on: December 9, 2011

Mark Bocek vs. Nik Lentz


I want to start out the preliminary discussions with the fight that I think has most value. It dawned on me after the Ben Henderson vs. Mark Bocek fight just how underrated Bocek is. With the exception of the Danzig loss, Bocek’s losses are only to the cream of the crop of the LW division (Edgar, Jim Miller, and Ben Henderson). The Danzig fight was a case of Bocek getting caught with a huge knee and never recovering. Bocek was definitely winning the fight up until then, and it’s pretty amazing that he survived as long as he did after that knee. Lentz will be in the lightweight division for a while, but I don’t think he’s cream of the crop and I also think Bocek is a very bad matchup for him. I’ll explain why below.

We are all aware that neither fighter has great standup. Bocek may get the slight edge here as I see Lentz being worried a bit more about Bocek going for takedowns. I think Bocek will welcome a takedown from Lentz so that he can work his ground game, but I don’t think Lentz will want to go that route immediately. What I think this will result in is Bocek going for takedowns. Bocek has shown that his takedowns are actually solid, but furthermore, Lentz loves going for the guillotine. This is going to be a big mistake against Bocek. I see this fight looking similar to Waylon Lowe vs. Lentz rounds 1 and 2 without the hail mary submission from Lentz. A play on Bocek is definitely recommended up to -200.

Final decision by MMAVardesh: $30 bet on Mark Bocek @ 1.67 / -150

Dennis Hallman vs. John Makdessi


Hallman is sitting as a slight underdog for this, and I really can’t understand why. Hallman has only had two losses since 2006 – one against Howard and one against Ebersole. Now let’s look at each loss. First, against Howard, it was an extreme come from behind finish. Hallman was cruising on his way to a decision when Howard got him with his big power at the end of Round 3. Against Ebersole, Hallman had his back quickly looking for a submission. Ebersole did a great job defending and ended up on top when Hallman went for a guillotine. These are not losses to be ashamed of.

Makdessi comes in with flashy UFC wins, but they were both against fighters who were not UFC caliber. I see Makdessi really looking to entertain in this bout, and that will be his downfall. Hallman will look to get this fight to the ground, and there will likely be opportunities when Makdessi tries flashier moves. Once Hallman gets it there, I see Makdessi having a tough time. To me, this makes it very likely that Hallman takes a decision if it goes that long. I see Hallman snagging a sub as likely, if not more likely, than Makdessi getting a (T)Ko.

Hallman is the smart play at current odds. To tell you the truth, I would have probably played him up to -140 or so.

Final decision by MMAVardesh: $20 bet on Dennis Hallman @ 2.43 / +143

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UFC 140: JONES VS. MACHIDA – Predictions part 2 / Main card

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Published on: December 7, 2011

Antonio Rogerio Nogueira vs. Tito Ortiz


Prior to the Phil Davis fight, I would have been a shade nervous betting on Lil’ Nog over Tito Ortiz. While Lil’ Nog’s record shows his past three fights brought trouble against wrestlers, I think round 1 of Lil’ Nog vs. Phil Davis showed a lot. Phil Davis is an extremely decorated wrestler, yet Lil’ Nog was not having issues stuffing his double. Davis ended up switching to a single in the next two rounds, and this was enough to keep Lil’ Nog on the ground. What does this mean to me? To me it means that Tito is going to have an extremely tough time getting Lil’ Nog to the ground.

This brings me to analyze the standup game. I feel Lil’ Nog is the better boxer as well as having more power. Besides the Bader fight, I don’t believe Tito has one a standup fight in years. I see Lil’ Nog being able to dictate the pace standing and land cleaner shots on Tito. I see Tito going for takedowns that just won’t be there. He seems to be slowing down a lot with age as well as having conditioning issues. Even if he does get this to the floor, Lil’ Nog can hold his own and threaten.

I think a moderate play on Lil’ Nog is justified here. I can’t recommend a huge play as Lil’ Nog has struggled recently, but I feel comfortable he’ll walk away with his hand raised.

Final decision by MMAVardesh: $20 bet on Lil’ Nog @ 1.56 / -180

 

Brian Ebersole vs. Claude Patrick


Brian Ebersole has gained a cult-like following in MMA, and I feel this was reflected in his opening line against Patrick. For the people who were on point enough to get Patrick at +180, congrats! The quick shift in the line is also in line with my opinion of the fight.

First, let me talk about Ebersole’s two UFC fights. Both fights have a common theme. I felt the Lytle fight was far more competitive than what others felt. Lytle’s major downfall was going for guillotine after guillotine. This caused him to give up position and stay on the bottom. This fight showed that Ebersole has great submission defense and solid ground and pound from the top. So what happens in the next fight with Hallman? Hallman is on him like glue within a few seconds gaining dominant position. Hallman then gives up position to go for a sub and ends up on bottom. Again, Ebersole shows solid submission defense and good ground and pound from the top.

Patrick has shown great grappling and patience in his fights. I see Patrick being on Ebersole just like Hallman was. The difference is that I see Patrick being far more patient. I feel Ebersole will be on his back quite a bit with Patrick working position. I do not feel Patrick will jump for a submission unless he feels he has it or it’s late in a round.

I look for a pretty clear cut decision from Patrick. I actually like him all the way up to -175 or so. If Ebersole didn’t have such finishing power with his ground and pound, I’d like Patrick up to -225 or so. I’d also entertain a Patrick by decision prop.

Final decision by MMVardesh: $25 bet on Claude Patrick @ 2.20 / +120

 

Mark Hominick vs. Chan Sung Jung


Very short writeup here. I was hoping Hominick’s odds would be more appealing, but they are a bit too expensive for my taste. One of my more fond betting memories was betting on Roop over Korean Zombie. I feel Korean Zombie’s striking is fairly sub par, and he will have trouble with fighters who can exploit this. Roop definitely exploited it. I see this as being tailor made for Hominick to do this to a higher degree. I feel he will outstrike the Korean Zombie and stay on the outside away from a takedown. I can’t decide if I see him ending it inside the distance or just staying outside, but I think it’s safe to say that he cruises to a victory. As I said, I do not like the expensive price though.

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UFC 140: JONES VS. MACHIDA – Predictions part 1 / Main card

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Published on: December 7, 2011

Jon Jones vs. Lyoto Machida


Jon Jones vs. Lyoto Machida for the LHW title is one of my most anticipated matchups of the year. Let me first state that I am a believer in Jon Jones. I love the fact that he has such a wide variety of weapons. Lyoto Machida has not been one of my favorite guys to watch due to his style, but I think his style may present some problems for Jon Jones.

Machida is an excellent counter striker who uses footwork to frustrate his opponents and timing to attack when opportunities present themselves. Two weaknesses that he has shown have been passivity as well as keeping his chin up in an exchange. Shogun was able to take advantage on
both of these and Rampage was able to steal a decision due to his passivity. With Jones, his biggest strength I feel is his wrestling and ground and pound. He has also shown good striking from the outside and the ability to overwhelm.

So what does this all mean? Well first, I don’t think Machida’s passivity will hurt him too much in a 5 round fight. He spends a lot of time trying to figure out his opponent, but a title fight affords him this time. Furthermore, I don’t view Jones as someone who will be throwing one big shot in an exchange. I think Jones path to victory is going to be mixing up strikings with takedowns and then going for ground and pound or a submission. First, I think taking Machida down will be very difficult. Second, I think Machida will be very hard to overwhelm standing. Landing one big shot is one thing, but landing an accumulation of shots is another. Lastly, Machida is very skilled on the ground if it does go there.

I do not see any justification for Jones being such a heavy favorite when I analyze this matchup. Jones does seem near invincible at this moment, but Machida presents a completely different matchup than what Jones has faced. I wouldn’t bet a very large amount on this fight, but the odds are way too good to pass up.

Final decision by MMAVardesh: $10 bet on Lyoto Machida @ 5.00 / +400

Frank Mir vs. Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira


This one is going to be short because I am recommending a “no play”. Let me first say that I think Frank Mir is incredibly inconsistent. I don’t think his losses post motorcycle accident were flukes. I just think he is an inconsistent fighter. With that said, I think he has all of the tools to give Nogueira a lot of trouble. We have already seen that he can (T)Ko Big Nog, but I also think he could use his size, clinch, and wrestling to get a decision. I don’t think either will be submitting the other. So why not play Mir? Well as I said, he’s inconsistent. I think Nogueira definitely has the ability to catch Mir standing and overwhelm him afterwards.

Quite frankly, there isn’t a single play I like for this fight. I could see it go the distance and I can also see it end in the first. The odds appear fairly accurate to me, so I’m not chancing it.

Final decision by MMAVardesh: $30 bet on Frank Mir @ 1.42 / -239.

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UFC: THE ULTIMATE FIGHTER 14 FINAL – Results

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Categories: MMA Results
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Published on: December 6, 2011

Perfect night again! Hit 5 out of 5 picks. We ended up profiting $76.60.

 

UFC: THE ULTIMATE FIGHTER 14 FINAL – betting results:

Total bets: $85 Money returned: $161.60 $ Profit/Loss: +$76.60

MMAVardesh Current Bankroll: $1500.31 ( Starting bankroll: $1000 )

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