Tony Ferguson vs. Michael Johnson
The line on this fight has been quite interesting. Ferguson opened at -220 and then quickly shot to the -280 range, and you have a lot of experienced gamblers stating the line is off. I’ve read a lot of opinions that I respect that say Ferguson shouldn’t be favored that high. The irony is that money is not coming in heavy enough on Johnson to really change it. I’m actually on the opposite end thinking Ferguson is a decent bet up to -300.
Lots of people were disappointed in Ferguson against Edwards. If you’ll remember right, we recommended a play on Edwards. Edwards can hang with most on the feet and make a fight competitive. We saw that against Ferguson. Ferguson looked much more crisp and powerful against Riley and Nijem as well as his TUF fights. Is Ferguson more likely to look like he did vs. Edwards or his other opponents when fighting Johnson? I am thinking the latter. Johnson is getting a lot of praise for his fights in the UFC, but the fact is that he has faced fighters without good striking. Roller is fairly slow in the standup, and it’s no secret that Sass and Brookins are not very good strikers. With Johnson having a disadvantage in the standup, he may look to take it down. I see Ferguson better defensive wrestling than Johnson’s offensive wrestling and much better footwork to avoid it.
In the end, I actually favor Ferguson in just about every area. Johnson is dangerous enough to where I don’t think Ferguson should be favored much higher than -300, but I still think he is a good play here under -300.
Nick Denis vs. Roland Delorme
I was most excited to see the opening line on this one, and now I’m even more excited. Denis’s line opened around -205 on Bookmaker and -240 on 5dimes. I’m very surprised that it hasn’t gone past -300. Delorme fought BJ Ferguson to get into the TUF house winning be triangle. After his loss to Dillashaw on the show, he beat BJ’s brother Josh by rear naked choke in the third round. What stuck out to me in both fights is that they were come from behind wins. His striking did not look great and I wasn’t very impressed with his wrestling. My thinking on Delorme is that he will take advantage of fighters who gas or get careless. Beyond that, he can’t really impost his will.
Denis is a fighter that does not fit the mold of a fighter Delorme can take advantage of. Denis is good at imposing his will, he has strong enough grappling to control, he has power, and he’s tough. I just find it very hard to see a way Delorme takes Denis out of this fight. I never say someone is a “lock” in MMA, but I think Denis should be more in the -400 range. I definitely recommend a play here.
Karlos Vemola vs. Mike Massenzio
Vemola is coming off his first UFC loss against Ronny Markes in hopes of taking out Mike Massenzio. Massenzio has had a fairly subpar UFC record going only 2-6. When you think about it harder, it’s really not as bad as it appears. He had to go up against Palhares, Stann, Soszynski, and Dolloway. All of those fighters still remain in the UFC besides the retirement of Soszynski. To be fair, his wins don’t look so great either as they are over McFedries and Cantwell. It’s important to note that he was winning the Stann fight until the submission. Vemola received a lot of hype after his Petruzelli win, but Markes shut that down quickly. It’s interesting because Vemola is 1-2 in the UFC and his hype has seemed to die.
Despite Massenzio’s record, I truly think he’s a fairly decent fighter. He can hang standing, has decent wrestling, and a decent ground game. The main edge I see him having over Vemola is his gas tank. I look for Vemola looking to blaze through Massenzio and having a tough time doing it. I would actually cap Massenzio at around -150, so I like his even line. I’m more interested in the props that will be available. I think this is very likely to go to decision or at least complete 2. I recommend entertaining the props or a straight play on Massenzio.
Danny Castillo vs. John Cholish
This is a fight that I would keep an eye on the line. Originally, I was excited about getting Cholish as a decent underdog. Most people are aware of Cholish’s ground abilities after training under Renzo Gracie and displaying his skills at UFC 140. Not many people realize he has a wrestling background at the Division 1 level. It’s pretty rare to see a Division 1 wrestler that is ok with playing the bottom game.
Castillo has made no secret what his game is. He looks to take you down, control, and pound out to a decision. He obviously has solid submission defense as he avoided multiple sub attempts from Poirier and avoided subs from Lamas and Stevenson. I feel his game is constantly improving as well.
In the end, it’s hard to know exactly where Cholish is since Castillo is a large step up in competition. One would think Cholish may be able to stuff takedowns, but I think he won’t mind going to the bottom. I would have definitely played Cholish around +150 or above, but I’m starting to be tempted by Castillo at close to even odds. I feel if Cholish can perform solid against good competition, it’s still a fairly even fight. Given the chance that he may not perform near as well along with the fact that he takes unnecessary risks, I favor Castillo here.
John Dodson vs. Tim Elliott
I’m going to keep this really short. I like Dodson to win this, but -500 is too steep for a straight play. I have not been very impressed with Elliott overall, and I really don’t think Dodson will break and let Elliott control him. Dodson also has been showing solid power lately. It seems like a very tough fight for Elliott to win, but odds are expensive here.
John Hathaway vs. Pascall Krauss
I will also keep this one very short. Hathaway is far too inconsistent for me to comfortably cap him. If he comes out and is “on”, I feel current odds are reasonable. However, he has looked very hit or miss in the UFC. I’m half tempted to go with Krauss if he reaches +200, but it may be wise to stay away from this one altogether.
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