Buddy Roberts vs. Sean Loeffler
I really tried to get this up as soon as possible, but line movements have been quick. Roberts opened as an underdog on a couple sites which is way off. His line has been moving in the even range. I still feel there is value in this line.
Roberts is training out of Greg Jackson’s camp and has shown an all around game. He typically fights at 205 lbs, so I expect him to be large in this fight. Loeffler has been in the MMA game for a while, but he’s always fallen short when he takes a step up in competition. He runs his own gym called The Compound.
Once you reach a high level of MMA such as the UFC or Bellator, I strongly feel that you need to switch to a camp and train with other high level fighters. This is one of the biggest aspects I look at besides analyzing previous fights. I look for Roberts to look like the more experienced fighter with a solid gameplan even though Loeffler easily trumps him in experience. Loeffler has looked very wild in the past and got away with it due to lower level of competition. In my eyes, Roberts should be in the -175 to -200 range.
Final decision by MMAVardesh: $25 bet on Buddy Roberts @ 1.71 / -140
Jonathan Brookins vs. Vagner Rocha
I don’t really have that much to say on this fight as I think the line is fairly accurate. I see Brookins being a bit more cautious in this fight since Rocha has a very solid ground game. With that said, Rocha isn’t exactly the type to just dive on submissions. This leads me to believe that the fight is very likely to go to decision either way. I look for Brookins to control, but expect some threats from Rocha. I would entertain a “fight goes to decision” prop as I think a decision is by far the most likely route to victory for the favorite Brookins while also being a strong possibility if Rocha pulls off the upset.
Ivan Menjivar vs. John Albert
Lots of people found value in Albert’s early line, but I just can’t pull the trigger on it. Albert had a very solid showing against Pague, but it was also a very short fight. Pague looked sloppy and Albert took advantage. I look for Menjivar to be far more methodical in this fight. This is a big step up in competition for Albert and Menjivar has been training with solid partners out of Tri-Star. I think Menjivar will likely pull this off with a submission or a clear cut decision. I would wait to see if his line continues to improve. I feel there is definitely value if he gets down to the -250 range. If you feel confident with him, go ahead and pull the trigger. I feel there is a good chance that his early line may have been accurate, but it’s just hard to tell with Albert at this point.
Justin Salas vs. Anton Kuivanen
This is a fight that I’m really excited for. Anton Kuivanen has had quite a bit of hype on the underground circuit, but he’s in for a tough fight going up against Justin Salas. Salas defeated Jake Ellenberger’s brother, Joe Ellenberger, to earn his shot in the UFC. Prior to that, he beat former UFC fighter Rob Emerson via unanimous decision. Salas is a Division I wrestler who looks to ground and pound opponents. Although Kuivanen has a strong grappling base, I think Salas will be too much for him. Salas is a big step up in competition, and not much can prepare you for Division I wrestling the first time you face it. Salas’s line continues to worsen, but I would definitely entertain a “Salas by decision” prop.
Walel Watson vs. TJ Dillashaw
I’ve been going back and forth on analyzing the value on this fight. Watson definitely surprised me in his last fight vs. Yves Jabouin. I expected Jabouin to beat him everywhere, but Watson was very game and lost a controversial split decision. He has a varied attack and a threatening submission game. The only issue is that he gives up takedowns which can lose you a fight.
With that said, Dillashaw is great at takedowns. These two facts would lead you to believe that I’d like Dillashaw, but I have a feeling that Watson is going to adjust his game to not give up takedowns. He was very upset at losing the decision to Jabouin, so I look for him to change it up. Since he showed that he is very well rounded, I definitely think he can make an adjustment and threaten.
I am still leaning towards Dillashaw being overestimated here. He was definitely overestimated in the Dodson line and I think this is happening again. However, this is based off of some assumptions that could prove to be wrong. I think no matter who wins, it’s very likely this fight completes two. I would entertain a play at that if you are going the safe route. If you have faith that Dillashaw will score the takedowns, then I think he is a good play. If you are on the boat that Watson can change it up, play him. Otherwise, this may be one to sit back and enjoy.
Final decision by MMAVardesh: $10 bet on Walel Watson @ 3.60 / +260
Bernardo Magalhaes vs Tim Means
This is another line that experienced quite a bit of early movement. I will say that I do not know too much about either fighter. I do know that Means was the KOTC champ and that he has fought at Welterweight. This fight will take place at Lightweight. Magalhaes has fought mostly in Australia.
The main factor that stands out to me is that Means has been far more dominant in his wins. He has finished and done it quickly. His competition has not been that bad either. Magalhaes, on the other hand, has gone to decision in most of his fights.
On the limited information that I have, I don’t see why Means is an underdog. I can say that I’m not surprised by the movement reflecting that this may be off, but take it with a grain of salt.
